The 2025 Scam Recap: Why ‘Guaranteed Growth’ is This Year’s Red Flag

Here’s a phrase that should make you immediately suspicious of any marketing pitch: “Guaranteed results.” Anyone who promises guaranteed growth, guaranteed rankings, or guaranteed leads doesn’t understand how marketing actually works. Or worse—they know exactly what they’re doing.

This isn’t just my opinion. The FTC reported that consumers lost $12.5 billion to fraud in 2024—a 25% jump from the year before. And here’s the part that really stings: 38% of people who reported fraud lost money, up from 27% in 2023. The scams are getting better at separating people from their cash.

A big chunk of that? Business opportunity and “marketing growth” schemes.

Why “Guaranteed” Is a Lie

Let’s talk about SEO specifically, since that’s where I see the most damage. Here’s what Google’s own documentation says:

“No one can guarantee a #1 ranking on Google. Beware of SEOs that claim to guarantee rankings, allege a ‘special relationship’ with Google, or advertise a ‘priority submit’ to Google.”

That’s not me saying it. That’s Google. The company that runs the search engine. They’re telling you directly: if someone promises you specific rankings, they’re lying.

Why can’t they guarantee it? Because Google’s algorithm considers hundreds of factors, changes thousands of times per year, and no outside company has special access to manipulate it. Anyone claiming otherwise is either delusional or dishonest.

The Pattern: How These Scams Work

The FTC has identified the pattern. If a business offer promises any of these, it’s likely a scam:

• Guaranteed income
• Large returns
• A “proven system”

Sound familiar? That’s exactly what you hear from cold-callers promising to “get you on page one” or “guarantee 50 leads per month.”

Here’s how it usually plays out:

1. The pitch sounds amazing. “We guarantee you’ll rank #1 for [your industry] in [your city].” Who wouldn’t want that?
2. The contract is vague. They don’t specify which keywords or what timeline. Or they target phrases nobody searches for.
3. Results are impossible to verify. They send you reports full of jargon that look impressive but mean nothing.
4. When you complain, they blame you. “You didn’t follow our recommendations.” “Your industry is too competitive.” “You need to upgrade to our premium package.”

The Numbers Are Getting Worse

Business and job opportunity scam losses hit $750.6 million in 2024—that’s up nearly $250 million from the previous year. And job and business scam reports have tripled since 2020, with losses jumping from $90 million to $501 million.

The BBB paints an even grimmer picture: more than 80% of people targeted by investment and “opportunity” scams lost money. And the median dollar loss rose 30% year over year.

These aren’t just numbers. Nearly 30% of scam victims reported mental health impacts—anger, loss of trust, anxiety. When a small business owner loses $5,000 to a “marketing expert” who delivered nothing, that’s not just money. That’s rent. That’s payroll. That’s someone’s livelihood.

Red Flags to Watch For

Here’s what I tell people when they ask about marketing services:

• “Guaranteed rankings” or “guaranteed leads.” Run. No one can guarantee this.
• Cold calls or unsolicited emails. Legitimate agencies don’t need to spam you. If someone’s cold-calling about SEO, it’s almost certainly a scam. I wrote more about this in how to spot SEO cold email scams.
• Vague contracts. If they won’t specify exactly what they’ll do, what keywords they’ll target, and how they’ll measure success, walk away.
• Pressure to decide now. “This offer expires today” is manipulation, not marketing.
• Can’t explain what they do in plain English. If they hide behind jargon and can’t tell you specifically what work they’ll perform, they’re probably not doing much.
• No case studies or references. Ask for clients you can actually call. Real agencies have them.

Scam tactics are evolving fast. Phone-based scams are surging, and AI is making phishing emails more convincing. Stay skeptical.

What Legitimate Marketing Actually Looks Like

Here’s the thing: good marketing can’t guarantee results because results depend on dozens of factors outside anyone’s control—your competition, your market, your budget, your product, economic conditions, algorithm changes.

What a legitimate marketing person can do:

• Explain their process clearly. What they’ll do, why they’ll do it, and what you should expect.
• Set realistic expectations. “Most clients see meaningful results in 4-6 months” is honest. “Page one in 30 days” is not.
• Show their work. Monthly reports with actual data, not vague dashboards.
• Admit uncertainty. “I can’t guarantee this will work, but here’s our track record” is what honest sounds like.
• Reference past clients. Not just testimonials on their website—actual people you can talk to.

If someone can’t do these basic things, they’re either incompetent or dishonest. Neither one deserves your money.

What to Do If You’ve Been Burned

Already paid someone who didn’t deliver? Here’s your action plan:

1. Document everything. Save emails, contracts, reports, payment records. You’ll need these.
2. Ask for specifics. What exactly did they do? If they can’t show you, you have leverage.
3. Request a refund. Put it in writing. Many will refund part or all rather than deal with complaints.
4. Report them. File complaints with the FTC, the BBB, and your state attorney general.
5. Dispute the charge. If you paid by credit card, you may be able to dispute fraudulent charges.

And learn from it. Get references next time. Ask specific questions. Trust your gut when something feels off.

The Bottom Line

“Guaranteed results” is the marketing equivalent of “get rich quick.” It sounds great, but it’s not how any of this works.

Real marketing takes time. It requires understanding your specific business, your market, and your customers. It involves testing, learning, adjusting. Anyone who tells you otherwise is either naive or trying to take your money.

When someone promises you guaranteed growth, ask yourself: if they could actually guarantee results, why would they be cold-calling small businesses? They’d be too busy getting rich from their own guaranteed system.

The answer, of course, is that they can’t. And now you know to walk away.

Got questions about vetting marketing services, or want a second opinion on a pitch you’ve received? Feel free to reach out. I’m happy to take a look—no strings attached.